Mafia: Lemmings 2 Edition

[RubiX]

I just got worried after being offed immediately last game. 
When people start writing a lot, accusations seem to come at them. 

Does look odd at a quick accusation from Ramond though, then trying to point out at people who haven't spoken. 
Nervous much?
Yea thats my accusation.

[GigaLem]

Today is a nice day to relax
*looks to his side*
hey what's going on there?

[geoo]

I had written anything up to now as I was on a campsite without WiFi and even no readily available electricity (which was not planned; neither was locking myself into the washroom of a tourist information when it was rainy outside), and I didn't want to use my mobile data for lowly matters such as this. I mean, I'm just being lazy hanging out at the beach, too lazy to write or actually vote for someone to lynch.

But yeah, I agree with Simon's analysis not to lynch anybody today (though we have to ensure that the same won't happen tomorrow). There's not much to add, so I'll just go back to beach-bumming. Simon's analysis being sound doesn't mean he's innocent though...that's just how he plays I think.

For some reason I believe Giga is innocent though.

[ccexplore]

I had written anything up to now as I was on a campsite without WiFi and even no readily available electricity (which was not planned; neither was locking myself into the washroom of a tourist information when it was rainy outside), and I didn't want to use my mobile data for lowly matters such as this. I mean, I'm just being lazy hanging out at the beach, too lazy to write or actually vote for someone to lynch.

Fair enough, your real life activities certainly sound far more exciting than the beach here, for now.

[mobius]

I don't think Ramond is nervous. Btw, he's played this game before, [this was mentioned during first game]. I'm guessing he randomly picked somebody like I did in the first game and my post was just a jab at him cause he did the same thing to me.
---------------
Anyway after thinking about it a little as much as I don't like being swayed by others I have to say I agree with Simon's reasoning a little. That is I think I'm in favor of not lynching anybody on the first night.
Ignoring his maths; let's look at it this way:

-We vote randomly-->ends up in our favor and a mafia goes-- good for us, bad for mafia

-We don't do anything--> so-so/bad for us --good for mafia, they escape death

-We vote randomly- we vote off a good guy--> very bad for us, we're down two in the first night [+the mafia's killing] very good for mafia.

[if our votes based solely on luck...]--was going to calculate percentages but I'm retard and can't do maths.
It's better imo, to do a no lynch on the first night [than any other time] with the max amount of people because... I lost my though. Well this is the round in which we all have the least amount of information.

6-2 means it's not very likely we'll get lucky and hit the mafia by total chance.
Myself, I am NOT a gambler and I often like to play it safe, so lets give the scooper more time to get info. Now, while I'm mentioning this, I'd like to say; if you are the scooper DO NOT reveal yourself! do not even hint abut it!

Plus, I will admit the advantage of this possibly earning me favor with the mafia or at least removing myself as a potential early target. 

NaOH had a good point however, in that next round we do need to bandwagon together and definitely off somebody. Your mission, should you choose to except it for this round, is to gather evidence and try to decide ahead of time who we might vote off.

A lot of names have been mentioned. I'm already gathering evidence, but like before I'm not going to open up about it yet. Just saying enough to make the mafia sweat--mwahaha ---Anyway--- I will go out on a limb and say I don't think ccexplore seems guilty either. However, I just realized, I am and have been particularly skeptical of people who say others sound innocent. idk why...

NaOH, I would argue one strategy a good psychologist/mentalist could use is to pretend he isn't good at psychology. [which you have sort of done...] 

and somewhere in this long post I've probably screwed myself 

P.S. I like Clam's avatar better with something going into the mouth.////do not take that the wrong way 
-----------------
EDIT:
so yeah, next round or whenever is when I'll be talking about who I really find suspicious.

-We vote randomly-->ends up in our favor and a mafia goes-- good for us, bad for mafia

-We don't do anything--> so-so/bad for us --good for mafia, they escape death

-We vote randomly- we vote off a good guy--> very bad for us, we're down two in the first night [+the mafia's killing] very good for mafia.

Also something I didn't consider at all; the different types of insight we might gain by each of these outcomes. Someone else wanna talk about that? So my final conclusion might be not that great at all....

[GigaLem]

Its just that its so hard to post
because you don't want to break the rules

[NaOH]

Fair enough, your real life activities certainly sound far more exciting than the beach here, for now.

I, for one, am digging this beach. B)

if you are the scooper DO NOT reveal yourself! do not even hint abut it!

Yep, definitely agreeing with this. Scooper, please do not reveal yourself; you're our best hope.

Its just that its so hard to post
because you don't want to break the rules

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you can say absolutely anything you like on here any time you like (unless Clam posts saying it's night time) so long as you don't actually prove your role. (So, don't post Clam's PM to you.)

Example: I am a purple elephant with cucmbers for legs and wurst for a trunk. See? :-)

-We don't do anything--> so-so/bad for us --good for mafia, they escape death

Ah, what you're missing is that Simon did some Mathemagics and showed that a 5 v 2 situation is actually better than a 6 v 2 situation, assuming all future rounds end in a lynch. (Which is not something that we can guarantee, btw; this is why I'm hesitant to not lynch somebody. Also because I haven't checked Simon's math.)

Soo, I highly recommend everybody to vote together, even if we can't be sure that person is a Mafia member clampoint thief. If anybody else votes for ccexplore, I will likely not change my vote. However, I still think that Simon is highly suspicious, if only because he seems to be using more exclamation marks than he did last time. Therefore, if the next vote is for Simon, I will change my vote to Simon as well.

[RubiX]

Help me scoopeyonekenoopi you're my only hope

[NaOH]

Help me scoopeyonekenoopi you're my only hope

WTF no Star Wars in this forum

edit: whoops, quoted mixed up.

[Clam]

24 hours left in Day 1 (minus a few minutes because I got distracted).

Votes:
ccexplore: 2 votes (Simon, NaOH)
NaOH: 1 vote (Ramon)
Ramon: 1 vote (RubiX)

---

Somebody correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you can say absolutely anything you like on here any time you like (unless Clam posts saying it's night time) so long as you don't actually prove your role. (So, don't post Clam's PM to you.)

Correct.

Also, just to make sure you’re aware of this point in the rules, which I may have edited in shortly after posting them (sorry if you missed it because of that!):

Note: If a majority is reached at any time, I will consider that as final, even if votes change again before I check the thread.

- 8()

[Ramon]

Let us look at the following from this point of view. We vote off randomly now, there are cases A B C or D:

A: Hit a Rogue Lemming!
Obviously, the best possible outcome, albeit with only a little chance.

B: Kill an innocent lemming.
While not especially favorable, don't forget that means the scooper has one less potential "innocent" target upon inspection the following night.

C: Clam the scooper.
Worst case scenario, but if the scooper is going to get lynched he should just reveal himself and tell us what he's found out. (In fact he might just PM the lemmings that he knows are confirmed innocent.)

D: Me.
Too bad, redirect to case B.

So while voting somebody off this round already may sound dangerous, I still ultimately think it would reveal more information than any other option. Remember we can still no-kill the next day to stay at even odds in case we get no information.

[geoo]

That's a fair point about reducing the choices for the miner, but it also reduces the choices for the mafiosi making it more likely to hit the miner. Besides, the voting shenanigans already give us a bit of information about who thinks what, and we'll get more of that tomorrow so by then I think we have a way better chance to kill a rogue.

If I had to vote, I'd vote for RubiX right now. I find him suspicious. I don't know about NaOH, she seems a bit suspicious too but I have nothing to compare against.

Completely contrary to all of what I just wrote, I second the accusation against ccexplore. EDIT: retracted as of 20:59:14 UTC

EDIT: I find the format where we lynch as soon as someone gets absolute majority a bit scary btw...

[mobius]

-We don't do anything--> so-so/bad for us --good for mafia, they escape death

Ah, what you're missing is that Simon did some Mathemagics and showed that a 5 v 2 situation is actually better than a 6 v 2 situation, assuming all future rounds end in a lynch. (Which is not something that we can guarantee, btw; this is why I'm hesitant to not lynch somebody. Also because I haven't checked Simon's math.)

I'm assuming that the Math here is based on "if all lynches are random guesses"? Which they are (or will eventually be) surely not. Sometime you can attempt to explain it to me on IRC or something. [After this game ends, since right now I do not trust you!  ]

Maybe I shouldn't be saying this because it's a strategy I may use in the future games;
If I was the scooper, I would definitely try PMing people. If you scoop an innocent person, PM them. The more people we rally together without the mafia knowing the better. Remember they already begin the game with advantage of knowing themselves.

B: Kill an innocent lemming.
While not especially favorable, don't forget that means the scooper has one less potential "innocent" target upon inspection the following night.

this is a good point. However also keep in mind scooping out an innocent means he/she's still gaining insight and narrowing down the people who could be rouge. PLus, actually if I was scooper I wouldn't mind finding an innocent at all so I could do the above.


Since there is already I majority vote I guess I can't do anything and will just... whatever. I still feel a little uncomfortable with voting off ccexplore because he doesn't seem guilty to me, but it's really based on nothing and I should probably stop saying that. Unfortunately the people I am suspicious of don't have any votes so me mentioning them won't do anything but cause more confusion and schisms right now.

ccexplore didn't really do much to defend himself but then there really isn't much to do.

Simon seems suspicious to me but I think this is mostly because he was mafia last time and I found out

[NaOH]

If I was the scooper, I would definitely try PMing people. If you scoop an innocent person, PM them. The more people we rally together without the mafia knowing the better. Remember they already begin the game with advantage of knowing themselves.

Drat. This is a problem. Now mafia members are going to PM people saying they're the scooper. The lesson: do not trust anything you receive in a PM.

[Ramon]

Drat. This is a problem. Now mafia members are going to PM people saying they're the scooper. The lesson: do not trust anything you receive in a PM.

But if they happen to PM the scooper by chance at least one of the rogues gives themself away, no idea if they'll take that chance