Mafia -- Lemmings Edition

[Ramon]

My last post was as sarcastic of a reaction to möbius' first post as was his random accusation to get the game going 

But really, I think möbius got a point there. Simon was the only one who could have taken Rubix' walker skills from him. After all I've known Rubix for a while and he would NEVER forget to pack a bunch of walker skills anywhere he goes!

[RubiX]

I feel so very hurt
To be given such a short life
BUT... maybe I was someone important?
Or was only after your wife

[Clam]

Well well well! Looks like möbius is quick to point his finger, a little too quick for my tastes!

Seconding this. And then he changes his story. Suspicious?

möbius wanted to take out Rubix right from the beginning, and he got his wish. Too obvious, right? Well, I'll bet that's what he was thinking too.

[Simon]

The accusations have been random at best, without anyone outing himself as the miner yet.

You absolutely have to think through yourself today what geoo suggests. If there is a miner that knows a rogue lemming, he should declare openly his role and the rogue. He will be protected by the blocker.

If there are two rogues, this is the only chance to get them today. If we kill at random, the chance is 60 % to kill a good one, leading to a no-win voting tomorrow with 2 rogue vs. 1 good. (Slim chance of 2 rogue vs 2 good if the blocker has survived until the night AND picks the correct one at random out of 4.)

I do not have a special role, so please reveal! I believe that at least geoo is genuine (opening the discussion with correct strategy usually means genuine in these games).

-- Simon

[geoo]

Ok, so in IRC it has been revealed that RubiX is allowed to speak (even if only in rhyme) as a ghost. We may assume that RubiX was not evil, so it is in you interest, RubiX, to help the good. So please, if you were the miner, please tell so and who you checked and what the result was. If you are the blocker, we don't really want to know that you're dead.

I read some IRC logs, and me, Simon and Ramon claim to be innocent (one too many, at least).
Clam claims to have a special role, which in general is a reason not to kill him. However, his comment "<Clam> I'm suspicious of geoo's comments though, is he merely helping the first-timers or trying to deceive them to his advantage?" makes him suspicious to me, as my strategy is sound and he should know it, unless he wants to deceive someone (which isn't going to work with Simon, whom this comment was aimed at).
mobius hasn't said anything about his role yet.

Note that with the current setup, it is in our interest to reveal all roles (except for the blocker). There is no point in not revealing the miner, as assuming he's not dead right now, he will be able to provide information about what he saw during the first night and the second night (even if he is killed during the second night, he can tell us by ghosting).

At this moment, unless we get further information, I'd be inclined to pick Clam or Ramon who seem the most suspicious to me due to what they've said so far.

[RubiX]

If I was given the time of day
To show you how I would play
You would genuinely feel
That I needed to stay.

[Ramon]

Okay. Didn't want to play it this way, but I guess there's no other choice with a small group of only 6 players to play, without any margin for error.
Miner here, and Simon's a rogue. Tried to get him to out anything that would reveal some information on the other rogue but nah. He kept his mouth shut regarding that very well. 

Accusation stands.

[NaOH]

Summary of Accusations:
-möbius accused Clam, but then withdrew his accusation.
-edit: removed Ramon's non-accusation.
-Ramon accused Simon, which has been seconded by möbius.
-Clam seconded Ramon's earlier assertion against möbius, but that wasn't an accusation, so this doesn't count.
-geoo and Simon have neither made accusations nor seconded any.
-RubiX is haunting you cryptically from beyond the grave.

Tally of the Accused:
-Simon (seconded)

When all players have made accusations, seconded accusations, or explicitly abstained, or nobody posts within a 48-hour period, I will again summarize the accusations and then give a deadline on the round.

[Ramon]

I haven't actually suggested any accusation besides Simon, so perhaps it's in the interest of all the players that serious accusations will only be made in bold? As to avoid any mistakes? :p

[Simon]

Are there any more people who claim to be miners, and have genuinely checked someone this night?

Ramon, why do you first not want to play with outing statements, but then change your mind even though I was accused by multiple players already? What is the gain?

-- Simon

[mobius]

I feel using IRC is a tad unfair for those who don't, so I will just briefly mention, as others did that I talked (barely) about the game there. Basically I just gained some insight based on comments some people made based on the posts I made. Of course what I gathered could be totally wrong because it was nothing major and based on total speculation on my part.

For some reason I have a feeling that Rubix was either the blocker or a miner. He's been a little quiet after being dead [of course that's not strange exactly]. There's also a (slim?) chance that he was actually rogue. There could be more rogues than 2 as geoo said. NaOh assigned roles and could be just as devious as the rest of em' Killing a rogue would be an interesting if risky, deceptive move. Actually that last thought doesn't make much sense, I kind of doubt that.

[RubiX]

Stop right now thank you very much
I need somebody with a human touch

[Ramon]

Ramon, why do you first not want to play with outing statements, but then change your mind even though I was accused by multiple players already? What is the gain?

As I mentioned, if I had stepped forward right in the beginning and exposed you, you wouldn't have revealed any kind of information in your posts or statements whatsoever that could implicate your partner-in-crime. That would make the next few days only based on trial and error or miner's luck on finding the other rogue (and I wanted to avoid having the rest of the game only be based on luck). I figured it'd be way more interesting to play it Bogart and try to get you to say something that could give some information about the other players, after already knowing everything you're saying should be taken with a grain of salt.

In any case, you keep emphasizing that you believe geoo is innocent - we may or may not go from there, as he could be either (reverse psychology much).

[Simon]

That is quite bold, and with nobody else minering, we should not neglect anymore the chance that dead Rubix was the miner. At 2 rogues, it's been a 25 % chance to lose him immediately.

I would like to accuse Ramon.

(Edit: Too tired for bayesian statistics of miner killed vs. miner lives and detects rogue etc.)

-- Simon

[geoo]

I'm seconding the accusation against Simon. (And I suspect Clam is the second rogue.)

I have trouble interpreting RubiX' mumblings. "I need somebody with a human touch" -- So not a clam or capybara or ...
Whatever, I do believe RubiX has a special role, but I can't deduce any miner information from the mumblings. So I assume Ramon is the miner (he accused Simon before claiming to be the miner, which makes sense), while RubiX is the blocker and Clam, claiming to be a special role, is probably evil. In IRC Simon asked Clam about being special, but no further conversation in IRC (unlike with Ramon), so that's consistent with them both knowing each other being evil.

Alternative would be RubiX is the miner, Ramon evil, and Clam special (blocker?), but I consider that a lot less likely.

As for my statement about playing conventional, when I play this game irl, it's very common having 3 or 4 players pretending to be the miner (detective) during the first day, in some sense protecting the real one against the exploder (terrorist) who could just kill him during the day.